Can a new party win?
HISTORY SAYS "YES" - The Republican Party was itself a "third party" in 1854 when it was founded. in 1856 it was defeated with John C. Fremont as its first presidential candidate. Just four years later, however, the Republicans defeated the incumbent party, the Whigs, running a man named Abraham Lincoln. In a four-way race, Lincoln won the electoral college vote and the presidency despite not being on the ballot in nine states and receiving only 38% of the popular vote (by comparison, Bill Clinton was elected president in 1992 with 43% of the popular vote).
VOTERS SAY "YES" - Surveys show a steady increase in the public's desire for a third party. A May 8, 2007 Rasmussen survey found that fifty-eight percent (58%) of Americans say it would be good for the U.S. to have a truly competitive third political party. An April 27,2006 Rasmussen research poll indicates that a third party presidential candidate emphasizing border security would tie a democrat candidate and defeat a republican. In a race with more than three candidates, one third of the vote can mean victory. Constitution Party candidates were elected to partisan offices for the first time in 2006, including Montana State Representative Rick Jore.